Viewing archive of Friday, 16 May 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 16/0721Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/1804Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/1842Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 455 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 May) and active to minor
storm levels on days two and three (18 May, 19 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 117 Predicted 17 May-19 May 118/118/120 90 Day Mean 16 May 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 015/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 013/ NA-021/ NA-021/ 10
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 60% | 60% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
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AR4087 197Emerging Flux Theory 36Tuesday's Filament makes the news in the UK 8Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2501Solar Transit, Artifacts, or Radiation 19
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/05/14 | X2.7 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/05/15 | M2.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/05/17 | Kp6+ (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2025 | 140.6 +6.4 |
| May 2025 | 69.8 -70.8 |
| Last 30 days | 94.8 -23.4 |