3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Nov 04 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 04-Nov 06 2024 is 4 (.33below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Nov 04       Nov 05       Nov 06
00-03UT       4.00         2.67         1.33     
03-06UT       4.33         2.67         1.33     
06-09UT       2.67         2.67         1.33     
09-12UT       2.33         2.00         1.33     
12-15UT       2.00         1.67         1.33     
15-18UT       1.67         1.00         1.67     
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         1.67     
21-00UT       2.00         1.67         1.67     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 04-Nov 06 2024

              Nov 04  Nov 05  Nov 06
S1 or greater   20%     10%      5%

Rationale
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to remain elevated but below the threshold over 04-05 Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 04 2024 0140 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 04-Nov 06 2024

              Nov 04        Nov 05        Nov 06
R1-R2           95%           80%           75%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           20%

Rationale
M-class (R1-minor) are expected through 06 Nov. There is a chance for X-class (R3-strong) on 04-05 Nov, decreasing to a slight chance on 06 Nov.

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