Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Dec 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity has been at low levels through the period. Most of the flare activity has been beyond the east limb at S15 with the largest flare being a C4.9 at 02/1641 UTC. Region 3906 (S16W63, Eko/beta-gamma) has produced a few C-Class flares but has been relatively quiet. All other regions have been quiet and stable. There were two new numbered regions that emerged; Region 3914 (N07W13, Bxo/beta) and Region 3915 (N13E67, Bxo/beta). There have been no Earth-directed CMEs observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast

There remains a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 03-05 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 03-05 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels until ~02/2000 UTC when the possible arrival of a CME from 27 Nov enhanced parameters. Total magnetic field increased to 14 nT and The Bz component reached deflections of -13 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ~375 to ~450 km/s. The phi angle has remained in the positive orientation (away from the Sun).

Forecast

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced early on 03 Dec due to the CME influences. A return to nominal conditions is expected over 04-05 Dec.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.

Forecast

Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03 Dec due to influences from the 27 Nov CME. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on 04-05 Dec with a return to a nominal solar wind regime.