Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 Apr 30 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. The largest flare was an M2.0 at 30/0751 UTC from Region 4079 (N08E60, Ehi/beta-gamma). This region appears to be the return of old Region 4055 (N07, L=237) which was a major M-class flare producer on its previous rotation. foreshortening has hampered analysis of this new group, but it appears to be a large E-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 4070 (S12W65, Dso/beta) underwent slight consolidation and then decay in its leading spots. The region produced a few weak C-class flares. Region 4072 (S18W25, Dai/beta) increased some mature, trailing penumbra, but was relatively quiet. The remaining regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) through 02 May.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 02 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 02 May.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced due to waning positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 5-10 nT. The Bz component was primarily northward to 7-8 nT with a few brief southward deflections ranging to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 425 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector.

Forecast

A return to a mostly ambient-like state is expected for 30 Apr - 01 May. By 02 May, an enhancement in solar wind parameters is likely with the arrival of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field reached active levels with a sustained period of southward Bz.

Forecast

Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail through 01 May. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, are expected on 02 May with the onset of CH HSS conditions.