Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 Mar 25 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity has been at low levels with only C-class flares being observed throughout the period. The largest flare was a C5.2 from Region 4035 (N15W22, Bxo/beta) at 24/0737 UTC. The region has been in decay with the loss of penumbra in its leading spot. Otherwise, most of the flare activity has been from Region 4036 (N07W65, Dhi/beta-gamma) which has grown in its leader spot as well as increased its length and area. Its magnetic field appears to be increasing in magnetic complexity, however due to its approach towards the western limb and the effects of foreshortening its difficult to determine what is real and what is an artifact. Multiple regions decayed to plage while others were stable. There have been a few faint, thin CMEs near both the east and west limbs throughout the period but nothing that was Earth-directed or of concern.

Forecast

With many of the active regions in decay flare probabilities remain low. There remains a chance (30%) for isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity and a very low chance (5%) for X-class (R3 Strong).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background.

Forecast

The electron flux at geostationary orbit is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels 25 Mar. With the arrival of the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) electrons are expected to increase 26-27 Mar. If winds within the HSS are strong enough the greater than 2 MeV electron flux will be suppressed below geostationary orbit. Electrons will rebound as winds ease and likely approach the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background barring any notable flares from Region 4036 which is in a favorable position near the west limb.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME influences throughout the period. The total field has been on the declining trend from 16.8 nT at 24/0113 UTC not long after shock arrival to near 5 nT at the time of this writing. The Bz component dropped to its lowest of -9.8 nT at the same time and has been decreasing towards -2 nT. Solar wind speeds rose from around 350 km/s to 425 km/s in the middle of the period and have been on a gradual decline. The phi angle remained mostly in the negative (towards the Sun) with a few short, sporadic shifts into the positive.

Forecast

The large positive polarity CH is moving into the western hemisphere and will see impacts throughout the forecast. The co-rotating interacting region ahead of the HSS will arrive 25 Mar with the CH becoming geoeffective on 26 Mar. Wind speeds are expected to increase and the IMF will become enhanced throughout this time.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field has been active to unsettled.

Forecast

Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 25 Mar due to CIR effects followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) storm periods are likely to continue on 26 Mar due to persistent influences. -Bri