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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28
May, 29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 26/0639Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 26/0520Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
26/0531Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1021 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (28 May) and quiet to active levels on day three
(29 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (27 May, 28 May, 29 May).
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 133 Predicted 27 May-29 May 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 26 May 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 008/ 006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 008/008-016/025-015/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 60% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/05/25 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/05/26 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/05/17 | Kp6+ (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2025 | 140.6 +6.4 |
| May 2025 | 78.1 -62.5 |
| Last 30 days | 78.1 -48 |