Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 August 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Aug 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 17/1309Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/2323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
17/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 617 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 083 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 007/008-009/010-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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