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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2025 May 07 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 May 2025	155	010
08 May 2025	158	019
09 May 2025	160	022

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low but very frequent over the past 24 hours, with approximately 20 C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4079, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) produced all of the activity with the brightest flare being a C4 on 6 May at 17:07 UTC. For the next 24 hours M-class activity originating from SIDC Sunspot Group 469 is likely and there is a small chance for an X-class flare.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and was detected by CACTus as launched on 6 May 18:00 UTC. It is associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA active region 4079). Although it is a relatively narrow CME, there is a chance to produce a glancing blow to the Earth's environment at the first half of 9 May.

Vento solare

During the last 24 hours the High Speed Stream (HSS) that arrived on 4 May subsided significantly. The Solar Wind (SW) speed dropped from 850 km/s to 500 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field (B) varied between 1 and 7 nT, and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -6 and 5 nT during the same period. Another HSS, associated with the SIDC coronal hole 111 is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions registered globally active levels for a short period of time (NOAA Kp 4- on 6 May at 21:00 to 24:00 UTC), while of the rest of the last 24 hours they fluctuated between quiet and unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 2+ to 3+). Locally the geomagnetic conditions registered unsettled to quiet levels (K BEL 3 to 2) during the same period. In the next 24 hours they are expected to continue at active to unsettled levels both globally and locally.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is a small chance that a proton event might occur during the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu threshold during the past 24 hours, with a peak value at 10000 pfu. It is expected to remain above the alert level during the next 24 hours as another high speed stream is very likely to arrive. The 24-hour electron fluence continued to be at high levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to gradually drop to moderate levels some time in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 082, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 06 May 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	094 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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