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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 May 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 May 2025	120	007
15 May 2025	122	017
16 May 2025	124	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with two X-class flares and three M-class flares. The strongest flares were an X1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 4378) and an X2.7 flare (SIDC Flare 4385). The X1.2 flare peaked at 15:38 UTC on May 13 and was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 494 (NOAA Active Region 4086, magnetic type beta-gamma). The X2.7 flare peaked at 08:25 UTC on May 14 and was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 496 (NOAA Active Region 4087, magnetic type beta-delta). There are currently five numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 496 (NOAA Active Region 4087). SIDC Sunspot Group 494 (NOAA Active Region 4086) is currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, a chance for M-class flares and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A wide Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), SIDC CME 496, was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 14:45 UTC on May 13, lifting of the northeast limb. No clear source was identified on the visible disk, suggesting a backsided event that will not impact Earth. A wide CME (SIDC CME 495) was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 15:50 UTC on May 13, lifting of the west limb. It is most likely associated with the X1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 4378) that peaked at 15:38 UTC on May 13. It is not expected to impact Earth. A wide CME (SIDC CME 497) was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 06:45 UTC on May 14, lifting of the northwest limb. No clear source was identified on the visible disk, suggesting a backsided event that will not impact Earth. No other Earth- directed CME was observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. Speed values ranged between 360 km/s and 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were between 6 nT and 12 nT. The Bz component varied between -10 nT and 12 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 114).

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3+) between 18:00 UTC on May 13 and 03:00 UTC on May 14. Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels (K BEL 2 to 3), with an interval of active levels (K BEL 4) between 20:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC on May 13. Active conditions, with possible isolated minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5, K BEL 5) are expected over the next 24 hours due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 114).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced but remained below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 049, based on 26 stations.

Solar indices for 13 May 2025

Wolf number Catania	108
10cm solar flux	117
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	066 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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